Hispanics Elect President Obama
Hispanics were the deciding voting block in the 2008 Presidential Election.

In 2004, the Hispanic vote in the Presidential election was fairly evenly split between John Kerry and George W. Bush. This year, Barack Obama carried more than two-thirds of the Hispanic vote. Given that many key states in the election had large Hispanic populations, this shift in support likely decided the election.

African-Americans have always voted strongly democratic and while there was a small increase in the percentage voting for the Democrat and an increase in the number of African-Americans voting in general, the shift among Hispanics was the more important.

A larger surprise is that for the first time, a Democrat carried the Florida Hispanic vote including the heavily Cuban-American South Florida area. This area in general, and the Cuban-American population in particular has normally voted for the Republicans who have historically taken a harder line against the Castro government. In this election however, Barack Obama actually talked (albeit carefully) of reducing restrictions toward Cuba and hinted at the possibility of improved relations and perhaps even high level talks with the Cuban government. Traditionally such talk would absolutely eliminate any candidate from serious consideration by Cuban-Americans in South Florida, many of whom have continued to talk of someday liberating Cuba by force if necessary and have been absolutely opposed to any normalization of relations with Cuba.

Analysts feel that perhaps this shift among Cuban-Americans reflects, as much as anything, a changing of the guard politically, where younger Cuban-Americans, not nearly as emotionally invested in returning to a land most have never visited, are more interested in non-Cuba related political issues than basing their support primarily on the degree to which a candidate is anti-Castro. Make no mistake, there are still plenty of older and perhaps even some younger Cuban-Americans with strong feelings about Castro’s Cuba, but there is a shift as evidenced by the results of this election where the candidate more moderate on Cuba won the majority of the South Florida Hispanic vote. Expect to see even more of a shift away from Cuba/Castro policy litmus testing in future elections as more and more South Florida Hispanics feel more centered in America than in their Cuban past or heritage.

Another factor is that Florida is now a melting pot for all of Latin America and consists of Hispanics from many more countries than just Cuba thus diluting the power of the once mighty Cuban-American voting block.

In summary, Hispanics had a great influence on the election and can expect to have more influence in this and future governments. The change from being a single-issue voting block, to one with a more mainstream outlook with some special interests (i.e. immigration and Latin American policies), has been key. A voting block that always votes the same way essentially has no power and there’s no reason for either political party to spend any time concerned with their issues. Because Hispanics are not pledged to or guaranteed to any particularly party, they will continue to have considerable influence and power in American politics and policy for years to come.

Don Elton, MD

“Soy Americana!”

Tags: politics